Experts warn Rubio's Hormuz bypass plan faces pipeline and security challenges.
Experts warn that Marco Rubio's Hormuz bypass plan faces significant logistical and security challenges. The U.S. Secretary of State's proposal to diversify energy routes away from the Strait of Hormuz has sparked debate, but economic experts and geopolitical analysts caution against an immediate shift.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, handling approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day—about one-fifth of global seaborne oil. Additionally, it serves as a transit point for about 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, primarily from Qatar. These figures underscore the strait's importance to energy markets.
Economic researcher Ahmed Abu Qamar notes that Rubio’s vision represents a long-term strategic goal rather than an immediate economic plan. He explains that reducing reliance on the Strait of Hormuz would require decades and billions of dollars in investments. The most significant challenge lies with natural gas, as the entire LNG export ecosystem is heavily dependent on the strait.
Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, has been proposed as a potential bypass route. After recent repairs following wartime attacks, it now pumps approximately seven million barrels per day. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which transports up to 1.8 million barrels per day directly to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
However, these existing pipelines combined can only handle about nine million barrels per day, far short of the 20 million barrels typically transiting the strait. Even if all available capacity were utilized, there would still be a shortfall of around 11 million barrels per day. This gap highlights the difficulty in completely replacing the Strait of Hormuz as a major corridor for energy resources.
Shifting reliance from the strait to the Red Sea also introduces new security risks. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which rerouted oil would travel south to Asian markets like China, Japan, and India, is actively threatened by Houthi forces in Yemen. This means that tankers navigating this route face significant dangers.
Overland infrastructure carries its own severe security concerns. Pipelines and pumping stations are static targets vulnerable to drone and missile attacks. Independent energy analyst George Voloshin points out that these facilities remain highly susceptible to such threats, as seen in past disruptions. Iran's capability to target overland pipelines and disrupt tanker traffic thousands of kilometres away further complicates the situation.
In conclusion, while partial diversification is underway, completely escaping the geographic reality of the Strait of Hormuz remains an elusive goal for the global energy market. The challenges posed by logistical constraints and security threats make a full escape from this critical chokepoint difficult in the near term.
